You will miss out on prominent players such as Mahomes, Murray, Allen, and Jackson. So why am I writing an article that is telling you to fade quarterbacks in Superflex startup drafts? There is serious value to be had at other positions in the draft if you employ this tactic. In Superflex leagues the quarterback is king. The chart in Tip #2 suggests that the TE3 range is being over drafted right now, which tells me that jamming three TEs into one tight end hole is too much. For this reason, I either want two low-end TE1/2s and log out or I want three TE2/3s. They simply don’t score that many points in half PPR, especially so when we have turned the 3rd starting receiver spot in for a higher-scoring superflex spot. Only 3 of the top-60 players in fantasy points over superflex replacement were TEs last season, a finding that was similar to what I found in QBs Are Undervalued On Underdog Fantasy. But in general, those late-round QB4s are worthwhile picks because it’s four QBs going into two QB spots most weeks. For example, if you picked Dak Prescott and Matthew Stafford at the Round 1/2 turn. Having three QBs is viable if the QBs in general are strong. Having 7-9 WRs for three WR spots is the sweet spot. If we have really bad receivers, then going to nine (maybe 10) receivers works. If we have really good receivers, then seven is viable. Otherwise, five RBs for two RBs spots will work most weeks.
If we have really bad backs, then six is viable. If we have really good backs, then four is viable. I hate viewing roster construction through the lens of the final team because the early-round journey is what actually determines the final roster construction, but the people just love a basic blueprint. And I'm a man of the people. Tip #5 - QB4, RB5, WR8, TE3 is the basic roster construction. I like Marcus Mariota, Jimmy Garoppolo, Kenny Pickett, Drew Lock, Matt Corral, Desmond Ridder, and Jacoby Brissett in particular.Īnd of course, we should be stacking these QBs with their WRs and TEs for positive correlation. Go back to the Tip #2 chart and see how discounted the QB30-QB40 range is. If we still don’t feel great about our QBs, I love going the QB4 route. If we wait on our QB2 like suggested in Tip #2, we should be pretty quick to double-tap our QB2 and QB3 in the Round 6-8 range. Not only are we going to even out our bye week scoring (where the QB3 will practically be guaranteed two startable weeks), but this QB3 will also be out-scoring our QB1 and QB2 on occasion even in the non-bye weeks due to weekly variance and injuries. It’s simply easier to find a spiked-week receiver than it is to start the worst starting quarterback of the week, so we will have our WRs and RBs sliding into the superflex spot during the bye week stretch.įor this reason, the QB3 spot is pretty important. The QB24 scored 3.1 fewer points during the bye weeks than they did in the non-bye weeks, while the “next flex” (the max of the TE13, the WR35, and the RB27) scored 1.5 fewer points during the bye weeks. The bye weeks are going to impact superflex scoring more than the normal flex spot because of a lack of supply at quarterback. Tip #3 - Assume your starting lineup will have 2 QBs, 2 RBs, 3 WRs, and 1 TE. For most of the second half of these superflex drafts, the WRs are over drafted by 10 picks, so grabbing one or two WRs in this Round 3-5 range is advisable while the price is fair. The RBs in a vacuum are the best picks in Rounds 3-5, but when we factor in the values of the entire draft then the WRs make a lot of sense here too. In this 20th to 60th overall range, the best picks look to be RBs (green dots) and WRs (purple dots).
Instead of doing this, we should look at the QB21 to QB34 range where the value is better throughout if we still need our QB2 and QB3. The QBs (red dots) being drafted between 20th and 60th overall (read: Round 3 and Round 4) are being over drafted by about 5-10 picks, likely based on user panic. The dots above the black line represent reaches. The dots below the black line represent the best values. This chart compares where players finished in 2021 fantasy points over superflex replacement and where players are being drafted in 2022 ADP.
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